Formulation
Blaise Pascal, a 17th-century French mathematician and philosopher, introduced Pascal's Wager in his work Pensées (1657–58). He posited that individuals are faced with a choice: to believe in God or not. Given the uncertainty of God's existence, Pascal argued that belief is the more rational choice. If God exists and one believes, the reward is infinite happiness; if God does not exist, the believer incurs only finite losses. Conversely, if one does not believe and God exists, the result is infinite suffering; if God does not exist, the non-believer gains finite pleasures. Pascal summarized this reasoning: "Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing. Wager, then, without hesitation that He is." Encyclopaedia Britannica
Decision Theory Analysis
Pascal's Wager is considered one of the earliest applications of decision theory. The argument can be represented in a decision matrix:
| God Exists (G) | God Does Not Exist (¬G) | |
|---|---|---|
| Believe (B) | +∞ (infinite gain) | −c (finite loss) |
| Disbelieve (¬B) | −∞ (infinite loss) | +c (finite gain) |
In this framework, believing in God (B) dominates not believing (¬B) because the expected value of belief is greater, assuming a non-zero probability of God's existence. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Criticisms
Argument from Inconsistent Revelations
Critics argue that Pascal's Wager does not account for the multitude of religions, each claiming exclusive access to divine truth. This "argument from inconsistent revelations" suggests that wagering on one specific conception of God risks choosing incorrectly among many possibilities. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Argument from Inauthentic Belief
Another criticism is the "argument from inauthentic belief," which questions the sincerity of belief motivated solely by self-interest. Philosopher William James contended that faith adopted through mechanical calculation lacks genuine conviction and may not be favorably regarded by a deity. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Influence and Applications
Pascal's Wager has influenced various fields, including theology, philosophy, and decision theory. It has been applied metaphorically in contexts such as climate change policy, where the potential risks and rewards of action versus inaction are weighed. Wikipedia
Related Concepts
Key Facts
- –Origin: Introduced by Blaise Pascal in Pensées (1657–58).
- –Core Idea: Advocates belief in God as a rational choice based on potential outcomes.
- –Criticisms: Includes arguments from inconsistent revelations and inauthentic belief.
- –Influence: Extended to decision theory and discussions on risk management.